Saturday, January 16, 2010

Well, yesterday sure was interesting

I don't think I've ever had a day that went that well. 13 games, 11 wins, 2 losses. Plus I hedged a few games at halftime and won those bets as well as the pregame ones. I'm going to try to leave a running total of how I've done since I started the blog at the bottom of every post from here on out.

Picks for the day with some thoughts:
The games today might be tough to call. There are a lot of back-to-backs and different teams respond differently to that. Some factors that I would take into consideration if trying to more accurately predict the score would be the average age of the team, whether the first game was a blowout and travel distance between games. But for now, I just leave it at -3 if you played the night before.

NO +2.5 at Indy
Seems about right. NO played an overtime game last night and has a fairly short rotation, while Indy played an easy one last night and likely weren't giving effort for all 48 minutes. This kinda worries me now that I start thinking about it. I don't see anyone on Indy keeping up with Chris Paul though, although that can be said about most teams.

Washington +1.5 over Sacramento (I picked straight to win.)
I'm going to repeat myself a lot over the days about certain teams, especially the ones that I don't know too much about. Sacramento is bad on the road and Washington is better than they are given credit for. They are well coached and the loss of Arenas does not really hurt them all that much. (I just hope they are not worn too thin after the double OT game last night.)

Phoenix +2.5 at Charlotte
Should be a close one. I'm guessing Phoenix is going to get a lot of action in this game, based on general perceptions about these teams. Although maybe not since Charlotte killed San Antonio yesterday and Phoenix lost a heart-breaker. If this one were in Phoenix the line would probably be Phoenix minus about 8. And I would like Phoenix in that game. This one, I'm not so sure about.

NYK +1 at Detroit (picked to win)
Hate these two teams, I just hope NYK can hit shots and limit Detroit on the offensive boards.

Miami +3.5 at OKC
Yet another game tonight that I don't like. I shared my thoughts on Miami yesterday and I was very surprised that they beat Houston. Hopefully they can pull off something similar tonight.

San Antonio +1 at Memphis (picked to win)
I don't know what San Antonio team will show up today. Both these teams were involved in blowouts yesterday, but the opposite ends. And if I had told you even a few months ago that that was the case, you would assume SA would be the one winning and Memphis would be the one getting killed. Popovich does some weird things when it comes to back-to-backs sometimes, so I don't know what to expect. I hope that the Spurs bring their A-game now that Memphis is starting to look like a legitimate 7th or 8th seed in the West.

Milwaukee +9.5 at Utah
Don't like it at all, this line is too close to what my system came up with and I know Milwaukee is awful on the road and Utah is one of those teams that is just much better at home. (Just looked it up 10 points per 100 possessions better at home than the road, Milwaukee is 9 points were 100 possessions too, so the stats I use for this game [only overall per possession stats] are probably skewed a bit.) I hate to sound like a broken record, but I hate this line.

Cleveland +8 at LAC
Love it. Clippers are coming off a blowout to the Lakers and were still out their best scoring option last night. I doubt Kaman will be back tonight. I know the Clippers played Cleveland well last year and lost only when Lebron took over the 4th and refused to lose. But this one should never be in doubt. I expect Cleveland to run away with it.

Record since starting blog: 12-3, 80% Win Pct. (It won't last.)

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