I don't think I've ever had a day that went that well. 13 games, 11 wins, 2 losses. Plus I hedged a few games at halftime and won those bets as well as the pregame ones. I'm going to try to leave a running total of how I've done since I started the blog at the bottom of every post from here on out.
Picks for the day with some thoughts:
The games today might be tough to call. There are a lot of back-to-backs and different teams respond differently to that. Some factors that I would take into consideration if trying to more accurately predict the score would be the average age of the team, whether the first game was a blowout and travel distance between games. But for now, I just leave it at -3 if you played the night before.
NO +2.5 at Indy
Seems about right. NO played an overtime game last night and has a fairly short rotation, while Indy played an easy one last night and likely weren't giving effort for all 48 minutes. This kinda worries me now that I start thinking about it. I don't see anyone on Indy keeping up with Chris Paul though, although that can be said about most teams.
Washington +1.5 over Sacramento (I picked straight to win.)
I'm going to repeat myself a lot over the days about certain teams, especially the ones that I don't know too much about. Sacramento is bad on the road and Washington is better than they are given credit for. They are well coached and the loss of Arenas does not really hurt them all that much. (I just hope they are not worn too thin after the double OT game last night.)
Phoenix +2.5 at Charlotte
Should be a close one. I'm guessing Phoenix is going to get a lot of action in this game, based on general perceptions about these teams. Although maybe not since Charlotte killed San Antonio yesterday and Phoenix lost a heart-breaker. If this one were in Phoenix the line would probably be Phoenix minus about 8. And I would like Phoenix in that game. This one, I'm not so sure about.
NYK +1 at Detroit (picked to win)
Hate these two teams, I just hope NYK can hit shots and limit Detroit on the offensive boards.
Miami +3.5 at OKC
Yet another game tonight that I don't like. I shared my thoughts on Miami yesterday and I was very surprised that they beat Houston. Hopefully they can pull off something similar tonight.
San Antonio +1 at Memphis (picked to win)
I don't know what San Antonio team will show up today. Both these teams were involved in blowouts yesterday, but the opposite ends. And if I had told you even a few months ago that that was the case, you would assume SA would be the one winning and Memphis would be the one getting killed. Popovich does some weird things when it comes to back-to-backs sometimes, so I don't know what to expect. I hope that the Spurs bring their A-game now that Memphis is starting to look like a legitimate 7th or 8th seed in the West.
Milwaukee +9.5 at Utah
Don't like it at all, this line is too close to what my system came up with and I know Milwaukee is awful on the road and Utah is one of those teams that is just much better at home. (Just looked it up 10 points per 100 possessions better at home than the road, Milwaukee is 9 points were 100 possessions too, so the stats I use for this game [only overall per possession stats] are probably skewed a bit.) I hate to sound like a broken record, but I hate this line.
Cleveland +8 at LAC
Love it. Clippers are coming off a blowout to the Lakers and were still out their best scoring option last night. I doubt Kaman will be back tonight. I know the Clippers played Cleveland well last year and lost only when Lebron took over the 4th and refused to lose. But this one should never be in doubt. I expect Cleveland to run away with it.
Record since starting blog: 12-3, 80% Win Pct. (It won't last.)
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Friday, January 15, 2010
Games for the night, January 15th
Picks for the night based on the model with a few thoughts about each game:
Charlotte +2.5
Charlotte is a killer home team and San Antonio started out somewhat slow in road games, but have climbed back up to .500. This line feels about right to me.
Sacramento +3
Last I had checked, Philly is one of the two teams in the league with a better record and point differential on the road then at home. (The other being Dallas.) However, Sacramento is also awful on the road. I think the difference between my spread and the Vegas spread is them giving the traditional 3 points to the home team, whereas my system only gave .6 points for this particular game.
Memphis -7.5
Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the league recently and I don't see Minnesota keeping up with them. Much better team. Too much fire power.
Toronto +2.5
I have no clue about this game, whoever is shooting better for the night should win. Knicks have a better defense but their offense isn't quite as good. Take the points, hope for the best.
Indiana -3.5
My personal observations have led me to believe that Indiana is the most inconsistent team in the league, which makes them very frustrating when it comes to predictions. That said, they should take care of New Jersey.
Phoenix +5
Phoenix is awful on the road, even if their record doesn't necessarily show it. Their home and road differentials are so far off from one another, they are like a different team. Atlanta is basically the same way, though better on the road than the Suns. I don't like this bet, but it's what the system came up with.
Detroit +2
New Orleans is terrible on the road and they find ways to win at home. That's all I really know about them. I don't know much about Detroit either, other than that their offense tends to come to a halt at times. Just gonna hope for the best.
Washington -6
Chicago should not be laying 6 points to anyone on the second night of a tough back-to-back, especially when the first game went almost to the wire. (Score yesterday is somewhat deceiving.) Even with all of Washington's troubles lately, I'm still confident they can pull this one out, especially if Chicago's mid-range game isn't working.
Miami -4.5
Honestly, I don't expect Miami to cover against many teams in the West, I watched them play a few days ago and they were awful. But lucky for them, their biggest weakness, lack of big men shouldn't hurt them too badly against Houston.
OKC +5
Dallas feels very consistent to me, while OKC always seems all over the place, never putting a game in doubt early, but I'm confident in this line. My record betting on Dallas games, whether for them or against them is fantastic. It's around 70%, and now I just jinxed it.
Milwaukee +3.5
We'll see if Jennings can give a repeat of his performance the last time he played the Warriors. Even if he doesn't, the Warriors are just not a good team. (Although, neither is Milwaukee, especially on the road.)
Portland +4.5
My system doesn't take injuries into account, so it favors Portland when compared to the Vegas spread a lot, but you know what, they have been covering nearly every game since Oden went down (a lot of those without Aldridge either). Orlando is going to be tough though, it should depend on if their shot is falling tonight or not.
LAC +10.5
I am a Clipper fan. I hate landing on this side of the bet. Also, coincidentally, the team my system has the worst record with is the Clippers and it's not even close (28% last I ran the numbers, though they have covered a few times since then). It might depend on who plays tonight. I assume Pau is playing for the Lakers since I heard he might. I'm unsure about the status of Kaman and Camby, who bothed missed the last two games (Camby played a few minutes in the first one). I see this as a revenge game for the Lakers and if the Clipper bigs are out, it should be a massacre. When Craig Smith is your only hope (he usually destroys the Lakers), you're going to have a bad time.
Charlotte +2.5
Charlotte is a killer home team and San Antonio started out somewhat slow in road games, but have climbed back up to .500. This line feels about right to me.
Sacramento +3
Last I had checked, Philly is one of the two teams in the league with a better record and point differential on the road then at home. (The other being Dallas.) However, Sacramento is also awful on the road. I think the difference between my spread and the Vegas spread is them giving the traditional 3 points to the home team, whereas my system only gave .6 points for this particular game.
Memphis -7.5
Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the league recently and I don't see Minnesota keeping up with them. Much better team. Too much fire power.
Toronto +2.5
I have no clue about this game, whoever is shooting better for the night should win. Knicks have a better defense but their offense isn't quite as good. Take the points, hope for the best.
Indiana -3.5
My personal observations have led me to believe that Indiana is the most inconsistent team in the league, which makes them very frustrating when it comes to predictions. That said, they should take care of New Jersey.
Phoenix +5
Phoenix is awful on the road, even if their record doesn't necessarily show it. Their home and road differentials are so far off from one another, they are like a different team. Atlanta is basically the same way, though better on the road than the Suns. I don't like this bet, but it's what the system came up with.
Detroit +2
New Orleans is terrible on the road and they find ways to win at home. That's all I really know about them. I don't know much about Detroit either, other than that their offense tends to come to a halt at times. Just gonna hope for the best.
Washington -6
Chicago should not be laying 6 points to anyone on the second night of a tough back-to-back, especially when the first game went almost to the wire. (Score yesterday is somewhat deceiving.) Even with all of Washington's troubles lately, I'm still confident they can pull this one out, especially if Chicago's mid-range game isn't working.
Miami -4.5
Honestly, I don't expect Miami to cover against many teams in the West, I watched them play a few days ago and they were awful. But lucky for them, their biggest weakness, lack of big men shouldn't hurt them too badly against Houston.
OKC +5
Dallas feels very consistent to me, while OKC always seems all over the place, never putting a game in doubt early, but I'm confident in this line. My record betting on Dallas games, whether for them or against them is fantastic. It's around 70%, and now I just jinxed it.
Milwaukee +3.5
We'll see if Jennings can give a repeat of his performance the last time he played the Warriors. Even if he doesn't, the Warriors are just not a good team. (Although, neither is Milwaukee, especially on the road.)
Portland +4.5
My system doesn't take injuries into account, so it favors Portland when compared to the Vegas spread a lot, but you know what, they have been covering nearly every game since Oden went down (a lot of those without Aldridge either). Orlando is going to be tough though, it should depend on if their shot is falling tonight or not.
LAC +10.5
I am a Clipper fan. I hate landing on this side of the bet. Also, coincidentally, the team my system has the worst record with is the Clippers and it's not even close (28% last I ran the numbers, though they have covered a few times since then). It might depend on who plays tonight. I assume Pau is playing for the Lakers since I heard he might. I'm unsure about the status of Kaman and Camby, who bothed missed the last two games (Camby played a few minutes in the first one). I see this as a revenge game for the Lakers and if the Clipper bigs are out, it should be a massacre. When Craig Smith is your only hope (he usually destroys the Lakers), you're going to have a bad time.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Intro
The goal here is to beat the spread of NBA games a minimum of 52.38%. I rounded up since, after all, I would prefer to actually win something. I created a model that takes into account a few factors about a team and determines the spread from these factors. The factors include, but aren't limited to pace, efficiency and playing on the second night of a back to back. There are also factors that I don't take into account, one of which is injuries. If anyone is interested why I don't take that into consideration, I will share my thoughts, but I don't want to just be talking to myself.
My model, which I started keeping track of on November 17th (I had to wait a little while after the season started to get enough data to create reasonably accurate spreads) is currently performing at 54.8 percent through 385 games, which if you're betting one percent of your capital on each game is an 8.9 percent profit. (For roughly the last 100 games of last season, it performed at a 60% mark.)
I have been hovering around this percent for awhile now and it seems to be holding fairly strong, however, I would like to see how it performs throughout the rest of the season before making any assumptions about the effectiveness of my analysis.
My model, which I started keeping track of on November 17th (I had to wait a little while after the season started to get enough data to create reasonably accurate spreads) is currently performing at 54.8 percent through 385 games, which if you're betting one percent of your capital on each game is an 8.9 percent profit. (For roughly the last 100 games of last season, it performed at a 60% mark.)
I have been hovering around this percent for awhile now and it seems to be holding fairly strong, however, I would like to see how it performs throughout the rest of the season before making any assumptions about the effectiveness of my analysis.
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