The goal here is to beat the spread of NBA games a minimum of 52.38%. I rounded up since, after all, I would prefer to actually win something. I created a model that takes into account a few factors about a team and determines the spread from these factors. The factors include, but aren't limited to pace, efficiency and playing on the second night of a back to back. There are also factors that I don't take into account, one of which is injuries. If anyone is interested why I don't take that into consideration, I will share my thoughts, but I don't want to just be talking to myself.
My model, which I started keeping track of on November 17th (I had to wait a little while after the season started to get enough data to create reasonably accurate spreads) is currently performing at 54.8 percent through 385 games, which if you're betting one percent of your capital on each game is an 8.9 percent profit. (For roughly the last 100 games of last season, it performed at a 60% mark.)
I have been hovering around this percent for awhile now and it seems to be holding fairly strong, however, I would like to see how it performs throughout the rest of the season before making any assumptions about the effectiveness of my analysis.
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